Falling pupil numbers

The recently published Education Policy Institute (EPI) research highlights the financial risk to schools due to falling population numbers.

It is being estimated that schools could lose up to £1 billion in per-pupil funding by 2030. The funding shortfall is likely because following the peak of pupil numbers in state-funded primary and secondary schools in 2022-23 at 7.57 million, numbers are likely to fall each year until they reach 7.14 million in 2028-29. As a result under the national funding formula (NFF), which allocates money to schools on a per-pupil basis, funding through the NFF’s schools block would see a corresponding drop.

The report states that primary schools will be hardest hit over the period analysed, with total primary funding dropping by 5.6 per cent. Secondary schools will see their funding increasing in general until 2026-27 when it will also begin to fall. These changes will affect schools in Devon.

The Department for Education (DfE) is clear that it is for local authorities and academy trusts to balance the supply and demand of school places, in line with changing demographics, as they have been for many years.

All boards as part of their strategic role should be aware of how changes in demographics in their area will affect their pupil numbers. Small schools in particular will find these changes challenging.

Partnership working is key to the future of all schools nationally and locally.  DAG has updated its ‘Small school checklist’ to help governors think about planning for the future of their schools.